Alert in 17 Mexican states as Hurricane Marie weakens and temperatures hit 45°C

Mexico is facing two weather extremes this Saturday, September 5, with a widening flood threat across the south and west and a punishing heatwave in the north, where temperatures are expected to reach 45°C in nine states. The offshore hurricane contributing to much of the rainfall also changed status overnight. Hurricane Marie has weakened to Category 1, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center's 2 a.m. advisory issued today, after several Mexican outlets described it as a Category 2 storm on Thursday and Friday.

Key Takeaways:

• Marie has weakened to Category 1, with sustained winds of 150 km/h (90 mph) and gusts of up to 185 km/h (115 mph). At 2 a.m. today, it was centred about 1,020 km (635 miles) west of the southern tip of Baja California Sur, down from the Category 2 strength recorded from Thursday night into Friday.
• Seventeen states are under some level of rain alert today, with Sinaloa, southern Veracruz and northern Oaxaca facing the greatest threat. Rainfall totals in those areas could reach 150 mm.
• A same-day Conagua social media post identified a different group of high-risk states from the official forecast bulletin. Both sets of information are presented below rather than reconciled into one list.
• As the south prepares for flooding, nine northern states face temperatures of between 40°C and 45°C on the same day.
• Forecasters are also monitoring a low-pressure system south of the Baja California peninsula that could develop into the season's next named storm.

Where the Rain Will Hit Hardest

The highest rainfall warning today covers Sinaloa, southern Veracruz and northern Oaxaca, where the national weather service is forecasting very heavy to locally intense rain of between 75 mm and 150 mm. Such rainfall could trigger flash floods within hours. A second band of 14 states, extending from Baja California Sur and Sonora through Nuevo León, Jalisco, Puebla and Chiapas, is expected to receive between 50 mm and 75 mm, according to a Saturday morning breakdown of the national forecast. Together, the two groups account for the 17 states now under a significant rain warning. Lighter showers of between 5 mm and 50 mm are expected across roughly a dozen more states and Mexico City.

Marie's Status: Category 1, Down from Category 2

The hurricane reached Category 2 strength from Thursday night into Friday, with sustained winds of nearly 170 km/h, matching the timeline set out by Mexico's weather service in its forecast table. However, the U.S. National Hurricane Center's latest advisory, issued at 2 a.m. today, puts Marie's winds at 90 mph (150 km/h), with a minimum central pressure of 970 millibars. That places it firmly in Category 1 and means it has weakened slightly faster than Mexican forecasters had projected. The storm is moving north-west at a slow 13 km/h and remains hundreds of miles from making landfall.

Even without a direct hit, Marie's effects are extensive. Its circulation continues to generate dangerous swells of up to four metres off Baja California Sur and 2.5 metres along Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco and Colima, as well as gusty winds and scattered heavy rain along the western coastline.

A Rare Three-Way Weather Collision

Marie is not acting alone. Mexico's summer monsoon is bringing separate rainfall to the north-west, while what forecasters are tracking as the season's 36th tropical wave is carrying moisture into the west and south. The combination of a weakening hurricane, an active monsoon and a tropical wave is a major reason so many regions are under some form of weather watch on the same day. It is also consistent with the season's wider outlook: Mexico's 2026 Pacific hurricane season is forecast to produce between 18 and 21 named storms, well above the historical average of about 15. The forecast was issued jointly by the national weather service and researchers Jorge Zavala Hidalgo and Christian Domínguez Sarmiento at UNAM's Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Change, who cite El Niño-warmed Pacific waters as additional fuel for the busier-than-usual season.

Marie's development can be traced to Tuesday, September 1, when it formed as a tropical storm off the coast of Colima, becoming the 13th named storm of the Eastern Pacific season. Its outer bands were already causing problems before it strengthened into a hurricane. Flooding affected a street in Pachuca, Hidalgo, that same Tuesday, while by Thursday, overflow from the Lagunitas creek had flooded parts of San Lucas as the storm intensified offshore, according to reports at the time.

The North's Other Extreme: Up to 45°C

While the south and west monitor the risk of flooding, nine northern and Gulf Coast states are facing the opposite problem. Baja California, Sonora, Sinaloa, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Tabasco and Oaxaca are all forecast to record highs of between 40°C and 45°C today, according to the same national forecast. Sinaloa and Oaxaca are unusual double cases, appearing on the lists for both heavy rain risk and extreme heat on the same day, although conditions vary across different parts of each state. A wider group of 14 states, including Baja California Sur, Jalisco, Veracruz and Guerrero, is expected to see slightly lower highs of between 35°C and 40°C.

Mexico City and the Central Plateau

The capital will begin cool and hazy, with a partly cloudy morning followed by afternoon showers that could bring thunder and hail, according to live weather coverage tracking today's forecast. Temperatures are expected to range from a low of 12°C to 14°C to a high of 26°C to 28°C. Nearby Toluca will be cooler, with morning temperatures of 7°C to 9°C rising to 22°C to 24°C in the afternoon. Wind gusts there could reach 50 km/h. Mountainous areas of Chihuahua, Durango, the State of Mexico, Tlaxcala and Puebla could see overnight temperatures fall close to freezing.

What Comes Next

Marie is expected to continue weakening gradually over the next several days, according to the National Hurricane Center's forecast track, with sustained winds easing further by Sunday. Mexican meteorologists differ slightly on when it will weaken to tropical-storm strength: one forecast points to Monday, September 7, while the national weather service's published timeline suggests Tuesday, September 8. However, the broader outlook is consistent across the forecasts, indicating a continued and gradual decline.

Separately, forecasters are monitoring a broad area of low pressure developing south of the Baja California peninsula. One outlet reported that it had about a 60% chance of developing into a tropical system within seven days.

What Officials Are Telling Residents

Civil protection coordinators in the affected states are urging residents to avoid flooded roads, stay away from swollen rivers and streams, and keep basic emergency supplies ready. Along the Pacific coast, from Baja California Sur to Colima, mariners and beachgoers have been advised to stay out of the water and postpone non-essential boat trips while Marie's swells continue. Officials said updated bulletins would be issued throughout the weekend as Marie and the new low-pressure system develop.

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Originally published on Latin Times